Thursday, August 29, 2013

Time again for a tired bull to rest - 29 Aug 2013


It's been a long time... And now, I am making special effort to get this out as I think it is an important point. The S&P500 futures looked technically topped, Very obivously in the daily chart, and seemingly supported but he weekly chart. The daily chart of /ES has a trend break pattern, which over the rest of this week closes below 1630, it is an obvious confirmation. Have had so many sell signals in the weekly and daily chart. Currently, the /ES is oversold and a slight bounce isn't surprising. Will be expecting more downside later this week. The VIX is correlating the S&P500 downside as well, having technically bullish setups. Looks like it is time to have a turn again.





Thursday, July 4, 2013

Last candle standing... 4 July 2013

Looks like a top is forming...



The weekly /ES chart already has a SELL signal.
On the daily /ES chart, 1565 on /ES appears crucial to hold, after one or two more up days in the rollover area.

Right now, new worthy market tuggings are China, Portugal and coming back again, Greece...


The MadScientist

4 July 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Friday, April 19, 2013

Expecting 1522 end

Just for fun... A quick look and seems like the third test of support may have just broken it.
breaking for sure signals another tanker this afternoon... Target 1522 on /ES.

Let's see how it pans out...



Monday, April 15, 2013

All that glitters is not gold... - 15 April 2013

Ouch...

Look at the Gold futures MONTHLY chart.

Over the past 3 years, many have asked me about the 24% returns in gold investment schemes available. My reply always had been that it is a 100% risk for promised returns that may not exist if the company goes under, or worse, when gold price drops suddenly and demand is virtually zero.

Looking at the chart for the past few days of gold price drop, and today's price action, I feel for those who were in those schemes. Watch what happens now that Gold price dropped so drastically in a short span of time.

Only advice left is:
The sooner we learn from our mistakes, the lesser the pain will be.
Recognise the wise man who looks like a fool and the fool who looks like the wise man.

Good luck!

The MadScientist

Friday, April 5, 2013

Made in Japan - 6 April 2013

 I'm in a very Japanese mood now... yes, I am leaving for Tokyo, Japan next week. Guess what happens when I am away? It was previously mentioned in another post.

In any case, this posting comes at a time when signals are appearing.

For ES weekly chart, it is a mature rally and again see signs of tired euphoria on the back of lower volumes. The daily chart has a SELL signal from yesterday and bearish divergence is clear in the MACD. Am beginning to wonder if April 2013 is even going to be a buligh month at all or not...



The VIX chart is not about to breakout but is clearly consolidating. I am expecting a break out just around the corner (when I am not looking, as I am away).


Interestingly, TLT iShares long term bond fund price has had major BUY signals and really popped up this week. Is this an early indicator? Perhaps so and one wonders what gives here...



Next week may be more down than what we would like to think.
Watch that corner!


The MadScientist
6 April 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

























Tuesday, March 26, 2013

It's just getting interesting

I'd like to reference an article in Marketwatch.com ( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rise-sp-nears-all-time-closing-high-2013-03-25?dist=lcountdown )

It's just starting to look really interesting now... Seems like there is thin ice all around.

Thread carefully!

Monday, March 18, 2013

The First of More? - 18 March 2013

This shock really came as a surprise to many... and Asian markets are reacting.
Expect the Western markets to do so as well later this evening as the futures and FX markets are undergoing volatility while the Western world sleeps.
/ES S&P 500 futures gapped down and is 1.18% lower. Nothing major but it could be the start of something to watch for this week.
Expect some pent up fear to project into the markets particularly after a good run in recent weeks.

See http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-analysts-are-saying-about-cyprus-tax-shock-2013-03-17

This may be the first of a few more to come...


The MadScientist


18th March 2013
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform




Wednesday, March 13, 2013

On borrowed time - 13 March 2013



The S&P500 turned bullished earlier this week.
That perhaps sparked a couple of friends to start asking for opinions for how this market is going to move for the rest of this year, and if they should join in to ride the trend.

This analysis is for you all...

SPX (S&P500 Index)


The Monthly chart on the left shows a 3rd wave in a 3rd wave (for those who are into Elliot Wave theories). Even if you are not into Elliot Waves, what this indicates is simply that the trend is t-r-end (Turning Round the End). It is a mature trend in a monthly chart, which means that the technical outlook here is longer term (in months). The MACD is flashing that this trend is mature. And current prices are near the mania upper band. Notice how the previous four times over the last 3 years has a pullback happen when price is near or at mania?  The count leaves only 1-4 more bullish candles, and I suspect perhaps we would see two more bullish months at the most, and may hit the last 2007 high resistance level or just fail it.
Therefore, while it seems bullishly trending, it's a bit late into the party IMHO.

The Weekly chart on the right shows it is still a bullish tone, but the prices are at mania levels. There is no Sell signal yet, but you can see how far off we are from the Buy signals. Nonetheless, it's still bullish - at least for now.


The Daily chart above (right panel) shows the Volumes (from ES futures) and this last rally has drooping volumes. Again, I'd say it is undeniably bullish for now, but pretty much just about there and I'm looking for the turnaround soon.

The MadScientist

13th March 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Sunday, March 10, 2013

No bull about that... - 10 March 2013

A quick note.

Looking at the S&P500 futures, along with other correlated markets, there is a bullish sense earlier this week and looks set to continue for a bit.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Ke Belakang Pusing! - 25 February 2013

Ke belakang pusing. Army use: A parade square command in Malay (literally 'go to the back and turn around'), meaning to turn around.

In last (week's) post, I ended with "...followed by more downside over the coming days..."

Yesterday's action firmed up that view as well as technically shows a chagne in trend.

/ES (S&P500 futures)

The weekly ES charts show a trend exhaustion after euphoria, with a weekly divergence on the MACD. The daily chart has already given a Sell signal on 22nd February, the day after my last post. Yesterday's price action firmed that it is likely to be a down week with the ES looking to correct at least to 1400-1425 range.



VIX

The VIX spiked. The weekly VIX MACD is about to breakout into bullish area and this is a worrying indication for some. The daily VIX spiked out of boundary into an extreme area and from previous patterns, tends to be out of the bands for some time before moderating. This time is particuarly strong(er) and can expect more downside correction in the overall markets as the volatility spikes for a couple of days.



/DX (USD futures)

While the S&P500 tanked, the VIX spiked, the USD had already been rallying over the last couple of weeks. Again, with a higher USD, we tend to see more downside on the S&P500.



TLT (Bond ETF)

The TLT ETF already clocked in a weekly Buy signal.
Go figure.



Time to be cautious...

The MadScientist


25th February 2013
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform